Programming Is Not Dead Kurt Jordan Assistant Professor kjordan@ccsj.edu Computer Information Systems Calumet College of St. Joseph Whiting, Indiana 46394, USA http://www.ccsj.edu Abstract Events over the last few years, with the advent of outsourcing and offshoring, have generated many articles, news stories and prophecies about the end of the programming profession here in the United States. Recent research, however, tells a different story. This paper details some of that research that shows demand for application development skills is still alive and well in the States and will be for some time to come. Keywords: Programming, Application development, Software development, Software engineering, offshoring 1. INTRODUCTION We’ve all heard the news reports and expert analysis detailing the impending death of the computer programming profession in the United States. Stories of massive job cuts at multi-national corporations and sad stories of laid-off IT professionals not being able to find work for over 18 months support this argument. Reputable researchers like the Gartner Group cite predictions from various studies of the annual loss of 150,000 IT jobs in 2003, with the loss increasing in subsequent years (Hayward, 2004). Inspired by these reports and research, many IT faculty went to work trying to decide what skill sets would still be in demand and how to modify their programs so their graduates would not have an ‘unemployable’ sign slapped on their backs as they picked up their diplomas at commencement. Controversial as it may seem, I am going to argue that programming is not a dead profession. There still is, and will continue to be demand for competent, qualified programmers in the Unites States. 2. TIMES HAVE CHANGED Most will agree that the days are over of the solitary individual huddled in their cubicle, surrounded by empty pizza boxes and several half-consumed bottles of Jolt Cola, spitting out line after line of computer code. Today’s application developer requires strong interpersonal and business skills. Gone also are the days where accounts receivable or payroll applications are being written in-house. Indeed, with so many off-the-shelf versions of these types of applications being available, no business or organization should even consider re-inventing the wheel. However, not having to devote time, people and capital to developing those types of applications means more time, people and capital can be directed to applications that directly support the core functions of the organization or business. In addition, someone still has to write and update the off-the-shelf software. There are many software companies located in the United States that do this very thing. Gartner research noted back in 2001 that in the typical IS organization, about half of e-business expertise will come from outside sources (Gomolski, 2001). This means those e-business skills will be outsourced. This is not necessarily a bad thing. We all know that computer technology changes rapidly. What is currently the hot piece of hardware, software or technique can be passé 18 months from now. Businesses can contract out for immediately available expertise in the new technologies without incurring the extra expense of training and/or hiring personnel with specific skills. However, that means the expertise the business is hiring has to come from somewhere. The IT service provider has to have personnel with the requisite skills. Granted, some larger corporations will seek this expertise off shore. But this option might not be available or might be too expensive for other corporations and businesses. There must be (and are) IT service providers with qualified personnel in the United States that are ready to provide the bleeding-edge expertise desired by their potential employers. Gartner research supports this: “Offshore programming is mostly confined to large-scale projects, including the creation, upgrading or maintenance of packaged applications. The majority of programming work consists of customization, integration or smaller ad-hoc projects that are best done close to the customer.” (Hayward, 2004) 3. EXPERTISE STILL NEEDED So, if organizations still need computing expertise in the United States, what explains the plethora of articles that say schools should revamp their curriculum to re-position their graduates in preparation for the lack of application development jobs? Recent Gartner research is peppered with findings that indicate soft skills, such as business management, technology management, negotiation, managing vendors, and integration management, will take over in the IT department, representing nearly 70 percent of in-house IT skills by 2006 (Morello, 2003). Anyone who has worked in industry might argue they already spend about 70% of their time on non-technical activities – meetings, travel, more meetings, etc. That aside, what happens to the technical tasks that still need to be done? Who will do the technical work? It can be argued that those technical tasks still must be done by someone. There is still demand for competent, qualified programmers in the United States. A September 2004 survey by Information Technology Association of America shows that demand for IT workers increased by 2% from 2003 (ITAA, 2004). This contrasts with the predicted 150,000 annual job loss mentioned in previously cited Gartner research. Note that programming is one of many job titles that are grouped under the umbrella term ‘IT workers.’ Not all 150,000 jobs lost will be programming jobs. In the ITAA survey, programmers represent the largest single group of IT workers. It shows the number of programming jobs lost since the 2003 survey was only 30,000. This might seem like a large number, until we consider past announcements of job cuts from large multi-national corporations, several of which cited numbers approaching this figure. One large corporate restructuring can cause this amount of job loss. It is hardly a sign of a dead profession. The survey also shows that, in spite of the loss of those jobs, programming skills still came in third on the list of skills predicted to be most in demand in the next five years, with security being number one, and networking being number two. The 2004-2005 Occupational Outlook Handbook from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that software engineers will be one of the fastest growing occupations over the 2002–12 periods, enjoying over 36% growth rate during that time. A 2005 CIO Magazine Research Report shows 50% of the respondents indicated that application development was the technical skill most in demand at their organization (Ware, 2005). In a similar 2004 CIO Magazine Research Report, 58% of respondents indicated application development was most in demand (Ware, 2004). The 8% year to year drop might seem to be significant, until you look at the data from the other 9 categories in the survey. Out of the ten skill categories listed, eight also had a drop in the percentage indicating importance. The remaining two categories stayed the same. Of the eight categories experiencing drops, application development had the smallest drop at 14%. Table 1 shows the figures from 2004 and 2005, along with the percent of decrease. Skill 2004 2005 Percent of decrease web services 23 15 35 Database 43 30 30 Security 42 31 26 web development 31 24 23 Help desk/Tech support 32 25 22 Project mgmt 57 45 21 open source 11 9 18 Application Development 58 50 14 Networking 35 35 0 Other 11 11 0 Table 1 Percent of respondents who indicated the skill was in demand in their organization for 2004, for 2005 and the percent of decrease from 2004 to 2005 (Source: CIO Research Reports) In the same 2005 CIO survey, 61% of the respondents indicated they were hiring for these positions within the next 12 months. In July of 2005, a cursory visit to Monster.com was made to get data on the number of programming job postings that were within a 50 mile radius of Chicago, Illinois, one of the primary job markets for graduates from Calumet College. Table 2 shows the results of using several key words to search for programming jobs. Search words Number of postings Application development 743 programming 469 ASP 274 Java 249 Visual basic 221 .net 180 COBOL 42 Table 2 Monster.com job postings within 50 mile radius of Chicago, Illinois The figures in the number of postings column of Table 2 cannot be added up to reflect the total number of programming jobs available. This is because the same job can appear using different key words in the search. For example, postings included in the ASP row in Table 2 might also contain the term .net, and would be counted in the .net total. Even with the overlap, the figures show that several hundred programming-related jobs are currently available in the Chicago, Illinois area. 4. OUTSOURCING No one will argue that the outsourcing phenomenon is changing the face of IT. Outsourcing can provide key expertise to an organization at critical times and can reduce costs. In those instances outsourcing is a good thing. But programming jobs in the Unites States are lost to outsourcing only when the work moves off shore. IT service providers that use workers located in the States still have need of local talent. Offshore outsourcing has potential dangers and pit-falls that go along with the potential benefits. Published reports show it is possible for some IT shops to compete head-to-head with outsourcing solutions. Koch’s article on how to outsource proof your department illustrates some of the potential problems with outsourcing (Koch, 2004). Management many times discovers only after the fact that their perceptions of in-house IT concerning higher costs, lower productivity and inflexibility turn out to be wrong. I, too, have personally experienced outsourcing problems. I was an Oracle Database Administrator with IBM Global services several years ago. I was assigned to a client in the third year of a 10 year contract. The client outsourced their entire IT facilities to IBM. Most of the client’s IT staff was hired by IBM to work on the client account. When I arrived at the client site, I entered into a situation that could be described more as a continuous series of confrontations than as a partnership. Pressure was constantly applied by IBM management to find new, billable work from the client. The client was constantly arguing that new applications they wanted fell under the fixed payment portion of the contract and was not new billable work. Many meetings and projects were delayed while upper management from both sides debated their respective points of view. The client canceled the contract shortly thereafter. As the CIO in Koch’s article points out, these two closely timed cataclysmic events – the initial outsourcing and the subsequent cancellation of the contract - no doubt caused much operational chaos at the client’s site and bad feelings among the client’s staff. Like CIO Sparks in the story, not all organizations with computing needs want to or even can outsource. The organization’s size, the size of the project and overhead costs are some of the considerations. Even if the decision is made to outsource, many organizations choose IT service providers with employees located in the States. 5. CONCLUSION Recent research on the topic shows that demand still exists for application development skills in the United States – programming is not dead. Schools providing this type of training should not eliminate it from their programs. Now, are different skills also needed? Certainly no one would argue against that. But this is not new. One of the major characteristics of the IT profession is change. We all have had to re-design courses and curriculum to accommodate changes in technology and processes. Gartner indicates that skills such as business process modelers, project leaders, security gurus, IT architects, risk managers, project managers, open source expertise, integration experts, client-site implementation engineers, wireless gateway engineers and relationship managers will probably not be offshored (Hayward, 2004). Curriculum can be altered to incorporate these skills. Should the academic programs be re-packaged and/or renamed? Little harm will come from retiring the programming label, as long as the associated skills are still available. In fact, several labels are already being used as titles of positions that perform programming tasks. Software engineer, software specialist, information systems developer and systems integrators are a few. The current offshoring movement should not be taken as the death-knell for application development in the States. Software developers will be needed in the States for quite a while yet. In a recent Gartner report, COBOL skills are projected to be needed through 2012 (Feiman, Berg, 2002). Who would have thought that 1960’s computer technology would still be hanging around over 40 years later? 6. REFERENCES Bureau of Labor Statistics, February, 2004, Occupational Outlook Handbook U.S. Department of Labor Feiman, J. Berg, T., September 2002, Application Development Skill and Technology Trends, Gartner Group Gomolski, B., April, 2001, Management Update: Assembling E-Business Skills at Warp Speed, Gartner Group Hayward, Bob M., Partha Iyengar, Frances Karamouzis, Ian Marriott, Rita Terdiman, Allie Young, Rolf Jester, June 2004, The Myths and Realities of Offshore Services, Gartner Group ITAA, September, 2004, Annual Workforce Development Survey, Information Technology Association of America Koch, C., October, 2004, How to Outsource-Proof Your IT Department, CIO Magazine Morello, D., October, 2003, Business Forces Spur Career Changes for IT Professionals, Gartner Group Ware, L. C., September, 2004, Mid-Year IT Staffing Update, CIO Magazine Ware, L. C., March, 2005, IT Staffing Update Part II, CIO Magazine